{"id":1649,"date":"2020-07-15T17:57:31","date_gmt":"2020-07-15T17:57:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/?p=1649"},"modified":"2021-05-01T19:22:32","modified_gmt":"2021-05-01T19:22:32","slug":"the-asian-disease-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/?p=1649","title":{"rendered":"Asian disease problem \u4e9a\u6d32\u75be\u75c5\u95ee\u9898"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The covid-19 pandemic is still spreading, I thought about Michael Lewis&#8217; 2016 book, <em>The Undoing Project<\/em>, where he included <em>the Asian disease problem<\/em>: say, there is an unusual disease outbreak from Asia, and 600 Americans are expected to die from it. To prepare for the disease, two methods are being considered.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Group 1:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A: 200 people will be saved if Mother A is employed.<\/li>\n<li>B: 1\/3 will be saved and 2\/3 will die<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Overwhelming participants of this study chose A.<\/p>\n<p>Group 2<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>C: 400 people will die if C is picked<\/li>\n<li>D: 1\/3 probability that no one dies and 2\/3 probability that 600 will die<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Overwhelming participants sided with D.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The conclusion is, people didn&#8217;t choose between things or options but chose between description of things or options.\u00a0This study was done by two Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, to prove how irrational we all are.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-15-at-11.38.09-AM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-1651 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-15-at-11.38.09-AM-150x150.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-15-at-11.38.09-AM-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-15-at-11.38.09-AM-48x48.png 48w, https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-15-at-11.38.09-AM-300x300.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a>When I looked <em>the Undoing Project<\/em>\u00a0 recently on Amazon, unfortunately, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Undoing-Project-Friendship-Changed-Minds\/dp\/0393254593\"><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Look<\/span> <span style=\"color: #00ccff;\">inside \u21d3<\/span><\/a> feature isn&#8217;t available, so I ended up listened to the entire book. Aside from it was an enjoyment, I&#8217;m surprised to find that, although it was mere a few years from my reading of it, (could not have been more than four years) that I&#8217;ve more take aways from it this time (or the same take aways but I couldn&#8217;t remember.)<\/p>\n<p><em>The Undoing Project<\/em> is about two Israeli psychologists Amos Tversky (1937-96), a cognitive and mathematical psychologist, and Daniel Kahneman (1934-), a psychologist and economist who had worked closely for fourteen years, from 1969 to 1983 on cognitive biases that becomes the foundation for behavioral economics, and their breakup in the end.<br \/>\nTheir collaboration had shown, we&#8217;re NOT as rational as we think we&#8217;re. Our judgements, including the medical doctors&#8217; are often erred.<br \/>\nLewis talked about how he came to write this book. After his <em>Moneyball<\/em> was published in 2003, Richard Thaler (1945-) and Cass R. Sunstein (1954-), pointed out that Lewis had missed the point, from the perspective of behavioral economics. At that time Lewis had not heard of the Israeli pair. (For a period of time, Tversky&#8217;s son took Lewis&#8217; class at Berkeley. And Lewis lives next door to Kahneman.)<br \/>\nThe first half or third of the book, is an ode to Israel.<br \/>\nEconomic is dry subject but not for Lewis whose story telling and writing are just wonderful.<br \/>\nTversky was hired by Stanford in a heartbeat in 1978, setting a record for the school, because every other institutions in the US wanted him when he was on the market. Kahneman, however, had to make a do in Canada for eight years. Toward the end of their relationship, one was pretty meant to the other, like, &#8216;considering Harvard? That&#8217;s the school I diced.&#8217; Tversky was getting lion share of the limelight for their work was the problem. The breakup, as Tversky&#8217;s wife said, was worse than a divorce. People are not so complicated, relationships between people are complicated, Tversky admitted.<br \/>\nShortly before Tversky&#8217;s death Kahneman joined Princeton in 1993 and went on to win 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences; Thaler won the same in 2017.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/IMG_1117.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-1667 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/IMG_1117-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/IMG_1117-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/IMG_1117-48x48.jpg 48w, https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/IMG_1117-300x300.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a>Because of Lewis&#8217; book, I&#8217;m now at the beginning of Kanheman&#8217;s book:\u00a0<em>Thinking, Fast and Slow<\/em>, with 8,017 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/?p=4748\">comments as of today<\/a> @ 4.5 star out of 5.<\/p>\n<p>More on the covid-19<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/?p=1879\">Want to go home but can&#8217;t<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>\u4e9a\u6d32\u75be\u75c5\u95ee\u9898<\/em> \u5728\u8def\u6613\u65af 2016\u5e74\u7684 \u300a\u64a4\u9500\u9879\u76ee\u300b\u91cc\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7: \u4e9a\u6d32\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u75be\u75c5\u66b4\u53d1,\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u6709600\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6b7b\u4e8e\u8be5\u75be\u75c5.\u4e3a\u4e86\u9884\u9632\u8fd9\u79cd\u75be\u75c5,\u6b63\u5728\u8003\u8651\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5 &#8230;<br \/>\n\u5f53\u7136\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u9898.\u6765\u81ea\u4e24\u4f4d\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6: \u963f\u83ab\u65af\u00b7\u7279\u7ef4\u5c14\u65af\u57fa Amos Tversky (1937-96; \u4e00\u4f4d\u8ba4\u77e5\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6) \u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u574e\u5c3c\u66fc Daniel Kahneman (1934-;\u4e00\u4f4d\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6). \u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece1969\u5e74\u81f31983\u5e74\u5728\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u89c1\u4e0a\u7d27\u5bc6\u5408\u4f5c\u4e86\u5341\u56db\u5e74.\u4ece\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u89c1 \u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u73b0\u5728\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u57fa\u7840; \u5230\u6700\u540e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5206\u624b &#8211; \u6bd4\u79bb\u5a5a\u8fd8\u75db\u82e6. \u5206\u9053\u626c\u9573\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff1f\u4e00\u65b9\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9. \u5f53\u7279\u4e00\u8868\u793a\u60f3\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u65f6,\u6574\u4e2a\u4e1c\u897f\u6d77\u5cb8\u5c31\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u62a2\u7279\u70bd\u70ed\u6218&#8211;\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u7528\u795e\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u63d0\u4ea4\u4e86\u96c7\u4f63\u5408\u540c,\u8d62\u8fc7\u54c8\u4f5b.\u800c\u574e\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u59d4\u5c48\u516b\u5e74;\u4ed6\u5728\u7279\u53bb\u4e16\u524d\u4e09\u5e74\u624d\u53bb\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f&#8230;\u7279\u8bf4\u8fc7:\u4eba\u4e0d\u590d\u6742,\u4eba\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u590d\u6742.<br \/>\n\u73b0\u5728\u91cd\u65b0\u542c\u4e00\u6b21 \u8fd8\u662f\u89c9\u5f97\u6536\u83b7\u6ee1\u6ee1&#8211;\u4e0a\u6b21\u770b\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u56eb\u56f5\u541e\u67a3. \u8def\u6613\u65af\u5199\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u662f\u4ed62003\u5e74\u7684\u51fa\u7248 Moneyball \u300a\u94b1\u7403\u300b(\ud83c\udfac\u5e03\u62c9\u5fb7\u00b7\u76ae\u7279\u4e3b\u6f14\u7684) \u540e, Richard Thaler \u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u6cf0\u52d2\u7b49\u5199\u7684\u4e66\u8bc4\u6307\u51fa, \u8def\u6613\u65af\u5b8c\u5168\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u4ece\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u91cd\u70b9.<br \/>\n\u8def\u8bf4&#8221;\u574e\u5c3c\u66fc\uff1f\u7279\u7ef4\u5c14\u65af\u57fa?! \u542c\u90fd\u6ca1\u542c\u8bf4\u8fc7.\u201c\u540e\u6765\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u7279\u7684\u513f\u5b50\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u5b66\u751f;\u574e\u662f\u4ed6\u9694\u58c1\u90bb\u5c45. \u524d\u534a\u90e8\u6216\u8005\u524d1\/3 \u4f3c\u662f\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u9882.\u8def\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u672c\u9886\u725b\u725b\u7684+\u5999\u7b14\u751f\u82b1.<br \/>\n\u518d\u540e\u6765,\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956, \u574e\u8d622002\u5e74, \u6cf0\u52d22017\u5e74.<br \/>\n\u518d\u518d\u540e\u6765, \u6211\u6b63\u5728\u56eb\u56f5\u541e\u67a3,\u6162\u6162\u5543\u574e\u5c3c\u66fc 2011\u5e74\u7684\u300a\u601d\u8003,\u5feb\u548c\u6162\u300b. \u622a\u6b62\u5230\u4eca\u5929,\u5171\u67098017\u6761\u8bc4\u8bba.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The covid-19 pandemic is still spreading, I thought about Michael Lewis&#8217; 2016 book, The Undoing Project, where he included the Asian disease problem: say, there&#8230;<\/p>\n<div class=\"more-link-wrapper\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/?p=1649\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Asian disease problem \u4e9a\u6d32\u75be\u75c5\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"bgseo_title":"","bgseo_description":"","bgseo_robots_index":"index","bgseo_robots_follow":"follow","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[70],"class_list":["post-1649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-covid-19-pandemic-","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1649"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1649\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4866,"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1649\/revisions\/4866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ireneeng.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}